Don’t think of an elephant.

Ever heard of confirmation bias? It’s what happens when somebody suggests an idea to you and then later on you start noticing things that support it. So even if it wasn’t initially true, the idea now seems more likely because you’ve subconsciously selected evidence for it. For example, “psychics” will say something like “you will receive good news today.” Confirmation bias comes into play when you have that prediction in the back of your mind and then you learn some pretty average news. “Wow the psychic was right! I guess that was good news!”

Confirmation bias is a well documented phenomenon that psychologists agree influences a lot of how we perceive our environment. And the reason it’s such a prevalent force is because seeds are so easily planted in our heads. It’s natural. Like if I say “don’t think about an elephant,” now you’re thinking about an elephant of course.

But confirmation bias doesn’t only affect our perception in positive ways. It could also be used to manipulate people into division and disdain.

Here’s how it works in a situation that everybody can relate with.

Jon, Liz and Dan are all friends and none of them have any bad feelings toward each other. But one day Dan feels really sad and tells Liz that he heard a rumor that Jon dislikes him. Liz reassures him that it’s probably not true! But of course it’s possible, she thinks to herself. The next day everything seems normal while the 3 friends are hanging out together, walking down the hall. Suddenly Dan trips over Jon’s foot and Jon apologizes. Liz normally wouldn’t think anything of it, but this time she couldn’t help but wonder if Jon had done that on purpose. Maybe the rumor was true and Jon really was being mean to Dan 🤔. So she decides to keep more of an eye out for it now. As their week continues, Liz watches Jon very closely 🧐. Now she’s noticing each time he rolls his eyes or uses a disinterested tone towards Dan. She never noticed these things before she started to scrutinize Jon’s behavior. But now it seems like it might actually be true that Jon secretly disliked Dan 🤭. So later on, Liz meets up with Dan as a concerned friend and tells him she thinks the rumor might be true! She mentions the tripping scene and all of the subtle micro expressions that she observed. Dan is shocked and upset 😓. He had completely forgotten about the tripping incident. And the other things he had never even noticed. But now his eyes are opened to all of these injustices. The next day when the 3 sit down for lunch, Jon arrives last and sits down next to Liz, not Dan. Why did he sit next to her? Dan assumes the worst. Silently resentful, Dan refuses to laugh at Jon’s jokes and starts to “one word” him 😒. Confused and feeling disrespected, Jon starts doing the same back to Dan. Now the tension between the two is real. Both choosing to passive aggressively fight, neither of them truly speaks their mind. So the two grow apart as they become more and more rude to each other. And the original reason for their falling-out? Ummm…they don’t remember 😴. But it’s not really important at this point, is it?

Tell me you can’t think of a time in middle school, high school, college or even work where you witnessed a senseless falling-out like that one.

So since we know confirmation bias can manipulate us on a small scale, what could it do to a whole country? What might happen if a political party insists that racism is thriving again in our country? All of a sudden, that innocuous dirty look or shoulder bump in the street seems like it was definitely racism. What might happen when a media outlet insists that male qualities are inherently toxic? All of a sudden, that guy who was a huge jerk to you seems indicative of a much larger trend. Or what about when a media outlet suggests that poor people are just being lazy?

I’m not trying to say that confirmation bias always leads us to the wrong conclusion. However, it does have a seriously strong influence that can dangerously and divisively exaggerate our perception of real trends in society. My point is that it’s important to humble ourselves to the ways that our subconscious minds operate.

Be conscious of the bias in your perception. And don’t let anybody tell you what you should be seeing.

Filip, again.